Анализ резул ьтатов математи ческого моделирования влияния санкций на сел ьское хозяйство Южного федерал ьного округа РФ

Abstract

The article presents a scenario analysis of the possible consequences of the current sanctions on agriculture in the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation. The study is based on the spatial model of partial equilibrium in the wholesale markets of agricultural products of the subjects of the Russian Federation of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics named after A.A. Nikonov” – Branch of the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution “Federal Research Center of Agrarian Economy and Social Development of Rural Areas – All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics”. The methodology of using the results of modelling to assess the impact of sanctions on agriculture in the Southern Federal District is proposed. The main threats caused by illegal sanctions are considered: reduction of the machine and tractor fleet and barriers to the export of manufactured products. During the analysis the volumes of production and consumption of the main types of agricultural products in the Southern Federal District were studied. Conclusions are drawn on the impact of the sanctions on the region’s dependence on external supplies of livestock products, namely: the deterioration of the agribusiness situation, violations of the reproductive process will sooner or later lead to a decline in agricultural production, which will cause instability in the situation of food supply to the population. Special attention is paid to the consideration of cash flows of the grain industry of the Southern Federal District. The possible impact of the sanctions on agricultural foreign trade is assessed in the context of scenarios. The special role of the state in overcoming agricultural crises is highlighted: financial support for local agricultural producers and the development of measures to eliminate the negative impact of export barriers. On the basis of the identified trends, the conclusions on the negative impact of the sanctions on the agricultural sector are formulated, namely: their serious negative impact on food security of the population, participants in foreign economic activity and on the financial situation of agriculture has been established.